The cryptocurrency market has been on a tear for the past three months, with Bitcoin prices rising above $7,000 for the first time ever. The rally has been fueled by an increasing number of investors and investors pouring into the market, propelled by the belief that Bitcoin is finally turning the corner to become a more-trusted form of money.
Bitcoin may lose $30K price level if stocks tank, analysts warn: Analysts say that if stocks take a dive, bitcoin may lose more than $30,000 in price, as the digital currency is valued more by traders than investors.The specter of a stock market crash haunts bitcoin (BTC) again. The last time this happened was in March 2023. Second, the prospect of a rapidly spreading coronavirus pandemic has closed markets in both developed and developing countries. Global stocks then fell simultaneously and bitcoin lost half its value in just two days. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the greenback’s strength against a basket of leading foreign currencies, rose 8.78% to 102.992, its highest level since January 2017. The huge inverse correlation showed that investors abandoned their stocks and bitcoins and went in search of what they considered a safe haven – the US dollar. More than a year later, bitcoin and equity markets are again experiencing similar bearish sentiment, this time fueled by renewed demand for the U.S. dollar following a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Indeed, the US Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would raise its key interest rates as early as the end of 2023, a year earlier than expected. Lower interest rates have helped bitcoin and the US stock market wake up from their bearish slumber. The benchmark crypto-currency jumped from $3,858 in March 2023 to nearly $65,000 in April 2023 as the Fed raised interest rates in the 0% to 0.25% range. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index is up more than 95% since its mid-March 2023 peak, to 4,257.16. The Dow Jones and the Nasdaq rose similarly, as shown in the chart below. Bitcoin, the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones all rose at the same time after the March 2023 crash. Source: TradingView.com. And this is what it looks like after the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike on Wednesday….. Bitcoin and the US stock market fell after the Fed announced a rate hike. Source: TradingView.com. At the same time, the US dollar index jumped to a two-month high, indicating renewed interest in the greenback in global markets. The US dollar index jumped to 2.06% following the announcement of the interest rate hike. Source: TradingView.com. On Friday, noted analyst Willie Wu said the stock market crash combined with the rising dollar could strengthen the bearish outlook for bitcoin. Some downside risk as the rocks fall in the tank, much of the DXY (U.S. dollar strength) rally is typical of money moving to safety, he explained. Michael Berry, head of Scion Asset Management, also sounded the alarm about the impending collapse of bitcoin and the stock market, adding that if cryptocurrency markets fall by trillions or meme stocks fall by billions, Main Street’s losses will approach the size of the nations. The problem with cryptocurrencies, as with most things, is leverage, he wrote on Twitter. If you don’t know about leverage in cryptocurrencies, then you don’t know anything about cryptocurrencies. Berry later deleted his tweets.
Some optimistic predictions
Price movements aside, bitcoin adoption continues to grow, providing a catalyst for growth that was missing during the March 2023 crash. On Friday, CNBC reported that Goldman Sachs has begun trading bitcoin futures with Galaxy Digital, a cryptocurrency trading bank run by former hedge fund mogul Mike Novogratz. According to Financial News Service, Goldman’s decision to hire Galaxy as a liquidity provider is a response to increasing pressure from its wealthy clients. Related: The Fed’s hawkish comments have sent bitcoin and stock prices lower again. Damien Vanderwilt, co-president of Galaxy Digital, added that mass adoption would help bitcoin reduce its notorious price volatility and pave the way for institutional players to embrace the cryptocurrency. Excerpts from his interview with CNBC: Once one bank starts it, the other banks will [be afraid to miss their chance] and they will get started because their customers have asked for it. Earlier, other major financial and banking service providers including Morgan Stanley, PayPal and Bank of New York Mellon had also launched cryptocurrency services for their customers.
Is bitcoin in a declining market?
And whether we are in a declining market? Wu said that despite the recent price drop, bitcoin adoption still looks healthy. The analyst cited metrics within the chain that indicate user growth and capital inflows into the bitcoin market. The biggest concern is the rotation of capital from stable currencies to crypto-currency markets (I say especially BTC, as the dominance of altcoins declines). All the dry powder left on the side of the road has returned pic.twitter.com/v1jRDMD1sm – Willie Wu (@woonomic) 18. June 2023 He also noted that bitcoin’s recent decline has simply moved BTC from weak to strong hands. 7-day moving average of coins moving between strong and weak hands. Source: Willie Wu. Recalled: My only concern about the downside risk is that a major correction in equities will drive the price of BTC lower, regardless of what the fundamentals indicate along the way. Given the strength of the US dollar against the DXY, some investors are resorting to a safe haven position in the US dollar.
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