The USD/JPY pair continued to decline today, with the pair trading below the 100 handles. The pair is currently trading around 102.00 handles, and is likely to test the 100 handles once more. It is important to note that despite the pair trading below the 100 handles, the daily MACD is still trading in the bullish territory. So, although the pair is trading below the 100 handles, the daily MACD continues to show a strong bullish signal.
While the U.S. Dollar Index recently moved lower on the week, the forex markets have been mostly devoid of any major directional moves. This is an improvement from previous weeks as the U.S. Dollar Index, which is made up of the USD, EUR and GBP, is making lower highs and is currently trading around the 52-week low seen on April 30th. The USD pairing continued to be the most prone to a breakout move as notable gains were seen in the EUR, GBP and JPY pairings over the past few days.
The cryptocurrency market capitalization is in the red as USD strength remains the key support for most majors. In particular, the overall market cap of the Bitcoin market has fallen below $300 Billion. This marks the first time the Bitcoin market cap has fallen below this mark since August 2017. The USD strength and the drop in Bitcoin market cap marks the first time the Bitcoin market cap has fallen below $300 Billion since the end of 2017. The Ethereum market cap follows suit, falling below $400 Billion for the first time since December 2017.
- Euro falls below activation level
- Pound sterling also falling due to continuing domestic political instability
- Wall Street is not hit yet
The other major currencies in the foreign exchange market started the week sluggishly and under continued pressure from the rising US dollar. The euro fell to its lowest level in months and below the key level of 1.19, while sterling also failed to gain positive momentum against the backdrop of domestic political changes in the country and growing concerns over COVID-19. Despite everything going on, Wall Street remains in a bullish mood heading into the new week. Markets generally traded higher yesterday, despite a slight decline in the industrial sector.
Euro falls ahead of important speech
The euro continued to lose ground against the dollar today, although German CPI data was in line with expectations. The data showed a 2.3% year-over-year increase, while the monthly reading fell to 0.4%. Even the positive figures from the June economic confidence indicator were not enough to prevent the U.S. dollar from rising further against the single currency.
Today, the attention of those trading in the euro currency market is focused on the words of ECB President Christine Lagarde, as many seek reassurance, as the central bank chief and politicians have so often done during this pandemic. Mixed sentiment and opinions on inflationary pressures in the US do not help, as many traders prefer to stay in the USD, although a further drop in Treasury yields has at least helped the EUR to maintain some underlying strength.
Pound Sterling remains under pressure and stress COVID
The pound has also weakened in early trading with currency traders, as it suffers not only from the weight of a stronger, healthier dollar, but also from domestic concerns that manifest themselves in various forms. These include concerns about financial strategy, but news related to health is currently the most common.
Following the departure of Health Minister Matt Hancock amidst the scandal and his own justified violations of pledge rules, the role of his successor is a difficult one in light of the rising number of COVID cases, which are a growing problem. Many fear that this is the 19th anniversary of the end of the war. July may further delay the full opening of the land.
Wall Street remains calm under pressure
Despite the noise from the outside, the increasing number of cases of the coronavirus and the strengthening dollar, the markets on Wall Street did not budge yesterday. The technology-heavy NASDAQ continued to rise, as did the S&P 500, while the Dow Jones lost about 100 points.
US consumer confidence data will be the next data to influence the market today, in a quiet period for corporate earnings. However, the big names in banking continue to perform well and increase their dividends, as announced today by Wells Fargo, Bank of America and others.As expected, US Dollar strength has continued to hold recent gains. The upward trend in USD is a direct result of the stronger Fed minutes; the USD has gained support as the market remains confident in the Fed’s plans to raise rates.. Read more about who benefits from a weak dollar and let us know what you think.
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